Afghanistan conference: if you can’t beat ‘em, get them to join you

2010 will be a decisive year for Afghanistan. So say leaders from 70 countries who gathered in London last week for a conference on the future of the troubled nation.

A clear strategy to end the war was outlined and some bold targets set. The question now is whether it will work.

But a fresh new approach has been proposed – winning the Taliban over, rather than defeating them.

The military aim of the strategy is to begin handing over security control to the Afghans.

By the end of this year, Afghan police and troop numbers will increase to 300,000, and half the country's provinces – the most peaceful regions – will be handed over to them. Within five years they will have security control of the whole country.

The latter goal is the tricky part and it depends on NATO forces and the US military being able to calm the conflict-ridden northwest. The surge in ally troops will help, but commanders are pinning their hopes on a fresh political strategy, one designed to take the pressure off the military.

It comes in two parts.

Firstly there is a drive to reintegrate moderate members of the Taliban into Afghan society.

The plan is to entice 'disenchanted brothers' of the Taliban towards peace with money from a special fund. US$140m has been committed internationally already.

As with anything in this conflict though, it's not that simple. What's to stop fighters taking the money only to return to insurgency weeks later?

For that reason the cash might be given to development projects. But that may not prove tempting enough for the fighters.

Another possible disincentive is that if they took the money, they'd have to play by the rules. These are: give up all links to Al-Qaeda and respect the Afghan constitution – including what it says about equal rights for men and women.

The second element to the political strategy is that President Hamid Karzai also wants to open up a political space for former guerrillas.

He is inviting those Taliban interested in making peace to talks at a special assembly known as a loya jirga. Karzai has managed to get some former Taliban leaders removed from a UN boycott list, presumably to recruit them to convince others to agree to a meeting.

There's been mixed reaction to the strategy. A senior Russian official, who was in Afghanistan during the Soviet era, said that economic enticement through jobs and development had also been tried then – and had failed.

The Taliban has already released a statement describing the initiative as 'futile'. However, UN sources have revealed that 'active members of the insurgency' have recently met - at their own request - with UN Envoy to Afghanistan, Kai Eide, in Dubai to discuss peace talks (the Taliban have denied this).

If nothing else, it's a fresh approach to a stale campaign. The conference did not discuss an exit strategy; a complete withdrawal of allied troops could be up to a decade away.

But it's not only war that is preventing the country from moving forward. The UN has described corruption as 'endemic' to Afghanistan, undermining peace and stability.

The High Office of Oversight and Anti-Corruption has consequently been set up to investigate and punish corrupt officials and also to make sure that the vast amount of aid entering the country is not tampered with.

Once the international community is satisfied that conditions for aid delivery are met, the proportion of aid channelled through the government would rise to 50%. It is hoped this will improve public opinion of the government.

But before any reforms on corruption or delivery of aid can be made, Karzai needs a completed cabinet. Parliament has now twice rejected a number of his nominees.

The president's list raised eyebrows for including names linked to warlords or known human rights abusers. There's speculation he's failing to name competent ministers in favour of those who allegedly helped him in the questionable election.

The final statement of the conference was mostly filled with optimism. But it did come with a warning though: before the war's over, there will be a spike in violence.

Military commanders are talking of months of intense fighting to weaken the Taliban – to convince moderates there is no other option than to swap teams. Insurgents will not go easily, suicide attacks will increase. Both sides will lose personnel and Afghans will lose family members and friends.

The future of Afghanistan rests on this switch in war strategy. Many long-serving military bosses in Afghanistan believe the plan to 'woo' Taliban fighters may work. One army source says, “Many are wary of fighting. It is a grim existence.” Grim indeed. Here’s hoping the alternative offer proves to be a better one.

By Charlotte Whale