What is the fighting in Pakistan about?

Many believe the world’s most challenging battle with terrorism lies not in Iraq or Afghanistan, but in the Pakistani region of South Waziristan – next to the Afghan border.

In fact, US officials have described South Waziristan and its surrounding region as “the most dangerous place on earth”.

It is the home to the Pakistan Taliban, led by Hakimullah Mesud, and possibly the world’s most wanted man – Osama Bin Laden.

Two weeks ago, the Pakistan government launched a major offensive to drive out the extremists. Here is the background to this offensive.

In 2001, all hell broke loose when Al Qaeda terrorists flew planes into the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon.

Fired up and with support from NATO and the UN, the US led a war into Afghanistan to remove the Taliban government after they refused to hand over, or renounce their support of, Osama Bin Laden – who by this time had claimed ownership over the attacks.

The US drove the Taliban leaders out of the Afghan capital Kabul and into the outer Afghan provinces. Many Taliban leaders fled across the border into Pakistan.

Up until this point, Pakistan had been the main sponsors of the Taliban. They had provided them with millions in military and financial aid as well as food, fuel and tactical advice. When the Taliban overthrew the Afghan government in 1996, Pakistan was one of only 3 countries to formally recognise them.

However, things changed after 9/11.

President Bush needed Pakistan’s support for the war in Afghanistan. So Pakistan provided land for US bases and supplied 100,000 troops to fight the Taliban, now its former ally.

This support came at a price. The US gave over US$8 billion in aid to Pakistan in the years after 9/11 ($3 billion of which has been allegedly misspent).

When Taliban leaders and fighters began crossing the Afghan border into Pakistan, they still expected a degree of hospitality. However, with Pakistan’s new billion-dollar buddy in the United States, this was no longer possible.

Local tribal leaders in the Waziristan area had orders from Pakistan’s central government to drive out any members of the Taliban.

Taliban sympathisers in the area didn’t like this change of loyalty, or the central government’s control of their region, and began setting up small militant groups.

Between 2002 and 2004 these groups started networking together and formed Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (Students Movement of Pakistan) – known as the Pakistan Taliban or TTP – a similar, but separate group to the Afghan Taliban.

Slowly they began gaining control of the South Waziristan region. By 2004 they had killed over 200 of the region’s tribal leaders and had effectively taken over as the new local government of the greater Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) – the wider territory within which Waziristan sits.

That year they signed a truce agreement with the Pakistan government granting them control of the FATA in exchange for peace. Two later peace agreements were negotiated by their new leader Baitullah Mehsud.

The US still suspected they were hosting foreign militants from Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban and they launched sporadic attacks on the region.

In any case, the truce ended in 2007 after Pakistani government troops stormed the extremist Lal Masjid mosque in the capital Islamabad killing 154 and arresting 50. TTP were supporters of Lal Masjid and consequently scrapped their peace agreements.

This triggered the present Waziristan war which has killed over 3,000 people and raised the number of suicide bombings in Pakistan ten-fold.

In August this year, a US drone killed Baitullah Mehsud and he was replaced by his deputy, and current leader, Hakimullah Mehsud.

Now the Pakistan government wants to get rid of the TTP in South Waziristan once and for all. Last week it sent 30,000 soldiers to take on the 10,000 or so TTP troops. It will not be easy – the terrain is rugged and the TTP are known for their ‘fight-till-we-die’ attitude.

Nevertheless, the government believes it has a small window of opportunity for victory between now and December when the winter snow arrives. It hopes to have taken control of the region by then so that it can bunk down and defend against the TTP through the winter – a far more attractive proposition than having to attack it.

If they are successful, the challenge remains of what to do next. The Mehsud locals are members of the same tribe as the TTP and support them to a degree.

They are traditionally conservative in their social and religious attitudes – every household must be headed by a male figure. They are culturally different from the rest of Pakistan which is why they are mostly left to govern themselves.

However, the Pakistani government, much less the international community, can’t afford this to remain a region of simmering discontent and a haven for terrorists.

Many believe the best way for Pakistan to succeed in the long-term is to maintain a military presence while financially investing in the region’s reconstruction and development. The literacy rate is a mere 17% and there is only 1 doctor per 6,200 people for example.

More than a million FATA residents have been forced from their homes since the war began including over 150,000 since the latest fighting last week. Queues at camps for registration, shelter and food are already long and tense.

The Pakistan government will need a lot of money, military resource and patience if they are to win the battle over the next few months. It seems they will need even more if they are to win the war.

By The Casual Truth

Photo – TTP leader Hakimullar Mehsud